Justin Thomas, 2 More Should Thrive at St. George’s

Billy Horschel pulled away from the field at the Memorial over the weekend as he took a five-shot lead into Sunday and, despite some stumbles, comfortably closed out Jack’s Tournament for his seventh career win.

Horschel captured his first win of the season and is now well positioned for the FedEx Cup and, more importantly on his radar, the 2022 President’s Cup. We’ll see Horschel again in two weeks at the US Open after this week’s RBC Canadian Open.

The tournament returns north of the border for the first time since the pandemic in 2020 and to St. George’s Golf and Country Club for the first TOUR event has hosted since 2010. It will be set up as a par-70, with a unique setup that features five par 3s and three par 5s. The scorecard is set to play just over 7,000 yards as a treelined test for what is a very strong field looking for one final tune-up heading into the third major of the season next week.

I won’t try to play the motivation game or speculate on who is just playing to go through the motions in preparation for the US Open, so everyone is on the table for me this week. I do see some players trending in the right direction and one in particular will be a fan favorite in his home country.

Best Buys

Justin Thomas

Justin Thomas was the first player who came to mind as I was reading through the data and formulating a skillset necessary to win at this course.

This is a track that is likely to take the driver out of the player’s hands on many of the shorter holes as positioning in the fairways will be key. It will also require some elite iron play – especially from 200 yards or more, where four of the five par 3s are likely to set up. All of that is a fit for the most recent major winner as his weakness can often be off the tee where his driver gets him in trouble.

Thomas’ strength is undoubtedly his elite iron play. I’ll be interested to see where the odds fall on Monday morning as there will be no discount on Thomas because of his missed cut at the Charles Schwab. However, there is reason to think we may get a decent number with players like Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy also at the top of the board.

Corey Conners

The Canadian faithful will be out in full force to cheer the return of PGA play to their country this week, and they’ll certainly give a little extra juice to Corey Conners and their other hometown players.

The timing may also be just right for Conners, who’s coming off of a week at the Memorial that saw him lead the field with over 8.00 SG: Approach. He was back to his elite, ball-striking self for three of the four days and posted a solid T13 finish.

Conners is similar to Thomas in that his ball striking is what carries his game most weeks and his long iron game certainly matches up with some of the best players in the world.

My hope is that we can get an opening number that is viable for a bet, not dissimilar to the +4500 he opened at for the Memorial. Anything in that range could be worth a look for a guy coming into form and with the positive vibes of being back in his home country.

Cameron Champ

This is not a name I expected to show up so much in my early research.

We generally think of Cameron Champ in spots where he can use his driver as much as possible to overwhelm the field. It may make some sense though this week because we have the rare three par 5s on a par-70 course.

With all of the distance lost in the five par 3s, there will still be plenty of longer holes. Champ is one of the best players in this field both on par 3s over 200 yards, as well as with his general approach game from that 200 yards and more distance.

We are talking now about seven of the holes being right in his wheelhouse and even coming off of a missed cut at Memorial, there are some underlying signs of better play. If I can get triple-digit odds on him on Monday, he will be one of my first longshot clicks this week.