Will the stock market drop 20% or 48% from the peak? Here’s the key factor, says this strategist.

Will the stock market drop 20% or 48% from the peak?  Here’s the key factor, says this strategist.

“Is the economy under control or is it spiraling out of control? That’s the million-dollar question traders continue arguing over, ”sums up CrackedMarket blogger Jani Ziedins. Clearly, the latter argument prevailed – again – after Wall Street’s worst day in two years, and futures hinting of more pain for Thursday. Among the gloomsters, Guggenheim’s Scott … Read more

Why this investor who paid $ 650,000 to lunch with Buffett isn’t buying or selling stocks right now

Why this investor who paid $ 650,000 to lunch with Buffett isn’t buying or selling stocks right now

It’s 13-F season, and you’re not going to find many like Guy Spier’s Aquamarine Capital in the first quarter —- zero buys, zero sells. “Pathetic, isn’t it,” Spier quips in an interview. Spier says he feels less pressure to trade for trading sake after he stopped charging management fees. He also cites the possibly apocryphal … Read more

Dow climbs third straight day as stocks end sharply higher after retail sales, Fed Chair Powell’s remarks

Dow climbs third straight day as stocks end sharply higher after retail sales, Fed Chair Powell’s remarks

US stocks closed sharply higher Tuesday, after retail sales data for April suggested the economy remained healthy and as investors weighed remarks by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. On Monday, the Dow ended less than 0.1% higher, the S&P 500 closed 0.4% lower and the Nasdaq fell 1.2%. The declines followed another losing week for … Read more

Morgan Stanley: ‘Hard landing’ odds jump as investors worry about economic growth

Morgan Stanley: ‘Hard landing’ odds jump as investors worry about economic growth

The probability of a “hard landing” for the US economy has jumped, with stock and bond investors worried about slowing economic growth, according to Morgan Stanley’s wealth-management division. “The stock- and bond-market downturn has advanced to behavior resembling a classic cyclical bear market rather than simply a correction,” said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at … Read more

Gloomy Goldman offers 20 ‘safety’ stocks with valuations below the previous 2 bear markets

Gloomy Goldman offers 20 ‘safety’ stocks with valuations below the previous 2 bear markets

It’s tight quarters in Wall Street’s bear sleuth these days. Goldman Sachs just downgraded their 2022 US growth forecast (to 2.4% from 2.6%) and 2023 (to 1.6% from 2.2%), as senior chairman Lloyd Blankfein warned of “very, very high” risks for a US recession. “If I were running a big company, I would be very … Read more

‘Managed futures are like pigs in mud’: This ETF manager is replicating hedge-fund strategies to pull off big gains as stocks and bonds drop this year

‘Managed futures are like pigs in mud’: This ETF manager is replicating hedge-fund strategies to pull off big gains as stocks and bonds drop this year

Hello! Market jitters remain high this week as stocks continue to slide, with Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation ETF standing out in the recent carnage. “We’ve entered a new era that is going to really challenge a lot of the ways people were making money,” says Andrew Beer of Dynamic Beta Investments, or DBi. In this … Read more

This portfolio manager’s strategy uses just one ETF and his own ‘crash indicator’ to beat the market by 530%

This portfolio manager’s strategy uses just one ETF and his own ‘crash indicator’ to beat the market by 530%

Markets are off to a stronger start on Friday, but it’s been a rough few days, with the S&P 500 facing a six-week losing streak, its longest in a decade. With a war raging in Europe, surging prices all over and uncertainty over what central banks can do about it, investors may not get that … Read more

Opinion: The S&P 500’s charts are pointing to more stock-market losses

Opinion: The S&P 500’s charts are pointing to more stock-market losses

This past week, the S&P 500 index plunged to new relative lows. It is now trading at prices last seen in March 2021. This latest move downward violated support at 4100-4200 and prompted a swift move down toward possible support at 3900. The next support area below that is 3700 – the lows of February … Read more

Oil prices are surging – these eight stocks are still bargains for long-term investors

Oil prices are surging – these eight stocks are still bargains for long-term investors

The combination of underinvestment in new oil wells and rising demand underscores what might be a long period of high prices for energy commodities. Meanwhile, many oil and gas stocks are still trading at low valuations to expected earnings despite a sector-wide rally stretching back to the end of 2020. Even though the energy sector … Read more

If we’re long-term investors, what should we be buying?

If we’re long-term investors, what should we be buying?

Ten times. That’s how often I’ve seen these market slumps, tumbles and crashes during the 25 years I’ve been writing about this stuff. At least. This includes slumps in 2010 and 2011 that were as bad as this one, and which I bet you’ve totally forgotten about even if you lived through them. But it … Read more