JP Morgan quant who called summer rebound in stocks says rally could continue even if corporate profits decline

JP Morgan quant who called summer rebound in stocks says rally could continue even if corporate profits decline

Investors worried about the next pullback for stocks might want to pause and consider this: the decline in equity valuations since the start of the year has already exceeded the average pullback of other recessionary periods since the early 1990s, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.’ s equity quant Marko Kolanovic. While more Wall Street … Read more

US stocks push higher as Powell sees path back to 2% inflation while sustaining strong labor market

US stocks push higher as Powell sees path back to 2% inflation while sustaining strong labor market

US stock indexes pushed higher after a wobbly start Wednesday, leaving Wall Street potentially on to gain ground after back-to-back losses, as investors tune in to remarks by central bankers while fretting that soaring inflation is damaging the world’s largest economy. How are stock indexes trading? The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, + 0.25% was … Read more

Recession is challenging inflation as top fear among stock and bond investors

Recession is challenging inflation as top fear among stock and bond investors

It’s easy to want to duck for cover given the carnage seen this year in stocks and bonds, particularly with the Federal Reserve vowing to wage an unconditional battle against high inflation. While inflation running at a 40-year high still sits near the top of the list of worries for many investors, another potential bugaboo … Read more

What the Fed’s biggest rate hike in decades means for the bear market in bonds

What the Fed’s biggest rate hike in decades means for the bear market in bonds

Historically bad. That’s how the mammoth $ 53 trillion US fixed-income market has performed this year as the Federal Reserve works to curtail high inflation threatening to wreck the economy. To turbo charge the effort, the Fed on Wednesday fired off its biggest benchmark interest rate increase in nearly thirty years. But what does that … Read more

Dow tumbles as inflation reading triggers market shock waves: What investors need to know

Dow tumbles as inflation reading triggers market shock waves: What investors need to know

From Wall Street to Main Street, fears that the US economy could be sliding into 1970s-style “stagflation” have been percolating. References to the sticky situation appeared in news headlines all week. The Associated Press called it “the dreaded ‘S’ word.” The Wall Street Journal reminded readers of the neologism’s origins as a catchy way to … Read more

Investors may be in for this rude surprise: History shows inflation can take years to return to normal even when Fed hikes above 10%

Investors may be in for this rude surprise: History shows inflation can take years to return to normal even when Fed hikes above 10%

History can be a powerful tool, particularly in a high-inflation environment like this one in which no suitable economic model seems to apply. Inflation – running at 8.3% as of April, near a four-decade high – has stayed stubbornly persistent for a full year to the surprise of virtually everyone who tracks it. Now there’s … Read more

Fed’s quantitative tightening is about to arrive: What that might mean for markets

Fed’s quantitative tightening is about to arrive: What that might mean for markets

The Federal Reserve’s nearly $ 9 trillion portfolio is about to be reduced starting on Wednesday, in a process intended to supplement rate hikes and buttress the central bank’s fight against inflation. While the precise impact of “quantitative tightening” in financial markets is still up for debate, analysts at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute and … Read more

A rough 4 months for stocks: S&P 500 books the worst start to a year since 1939. Here’s what pros say you should do now.

A rough 4 months for stocks: S&P 500 books the worst start to a year since 1939. Here’s what pros say you should do now.

To say that it has been a perilous stretch for bullish stock investors on Wall Street lately is a bit of an understatement. Marked by stomach-churning volatility and bruising losses in once-popular technology trades, the S&P 500 booked its worst start to a year, through the first four months of 2022, in over 80 years, … Read more

First major Wall Street bank to forecast a recession now sees downside risk to its own pessimistic view

First major Wall Street bank to forecast a recession now sees downside risk to its own pessimistic view

Deutsche Bank, the first major Wall Street bank to call for a US recession during the current elevated-inflation era, is now going farther out on a limb: It sees downside risks to its own outlook, given the likelihood of persistently elevated price gains and continued upside surprises. Describing themselves as “the extreme outlier on the … Read more

The news coming from this giant volcano is even more gloomier than the new forecasts from the IMF and World Bank

The news coming from this giant volcano is even more gloomier than the new forecasts from the IMF and World Bank

Investors love looking at esoteric indicators for clues on how the economy is performing, and therefore how stocks, bonds and other assets will trade. How about looking at carbon dioxide emissions? There may be a political agreement to reduce emissions but that’s an effort phased in over many years. Any sudden changes are more likely … Read more