Tommy Fleetwood, Davis Riley, 3 More Outright Bets

Click arrow to expand 2022 AT&T Byron Nelson odds via BetMGM

2022 AT&T Byron Nelson Odds

Golfer Odds
Scottie Scheffler +1000
Justin Thomas +1200
Sam Burns +2000
Dustin Johnson +2200
Jordan Spieth +2200
Will Zalatoris +2200
Xander Schauffele +2200
Hideki Matsuyama +2800
Brooks Koepka +3300
Joaquin Niemann +3300
Jhonattan Vegas +4000
Talor Gooch +4000
Tommy Fleetwood +4000
Aaron Wise +5000
Adam Hadwin +5000
Cameron Champ +5000
Davis Riley +5000
Jason Day +5000
Jason Kokrak +5000
Maverick McNealy +5000
Seamus Power +5000
Adam Scott +6600
Alex Noren +6600
Brian Harman +6600
Lanto Griffin +6600
Myth Pereira +6600
Patton Kizzire +6600
Bubba Watson +6600
Marc Leishman +6600
Si Woo Kim +6600
KH Lee +8000
Matt Kuchar +8000
Matthew Wolff +8000
Sebastian Munoz +8000
Sepp Straka +8000
Keith Mitchell +8000
Kevin Kisner +8000
Luke List +8000
Matthew NeSmith +8000
Patrick Rodgers +8000
Brandon Wu +10000
CT Pan +10000
Charles Howell III +10000
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +10000
David Lipsky +10000
JJ Spaun +10000
Kurt Kitayama +10000
Mackenzie Hughes +10000
Scott Stallings +10000
Tom Hoge +10000
Aaron Rai +12500
Brendon Todd +12500
Dylan Frittelli +12500
Ian Poulter +12500
Joohyung Kim +12500
Nick Taylor +12500
Ryan Palmer +12500
Sahith Theegala +12500
Stephan Jaeger +12500
Branden Grace +15000
Carlos Ortiz +15000
At Reavie’s +15000
Danny Willett +15000
Emiliano Grillo +15000
Lee Westwood +15000
Matthias Schwab +15000
Scott Piercy +15000
Wyndham Clark +15000
Greyson Sigg +15000
James Hahn +15000
Nate Lashley +15000
Austin Smotherman +20000
Brian Stuard +20000
Doc Redman +20000
Hank Lebioda +20000
Martin Laird +20000
Pat Perez +20000
Tyler Duncan +20000
Vince Whaley +20000
Ryan Armor +20000
Mark Hubbard +20000
Adam Schenk +25000
Adam Svensson +25000
Andrew Novak +25000
Beau Hossler +25000
Brandt Snedeker +25000
Brice Garnett +25000
Charl Schwartzel +25000
Francesco Molinari +25000
Henrik Stenson +25000
Hudson Swafford +25000
John Huh +25000
Joseph Bramlett +25000
Justin Lower +25000
Kramer Hickok +25000
Luke Donald +25000
Peter Malnati +25000
Robert Streb +25000
Rory Sabbatini +25000
Taylor Moore +25000
Matt Wallace +25000
Andrew Putnam +30000
Charley Hoffman +30000
Harry Higgs +30000
Lee Hodges +30000
Michael Thompson +30000
Peter Uihlein +30000
Sam Ryder +30000
Trey Mullinax +30000
Shaun Norris +30000
Ben Kohles +35000
Brandon Hagy +35000
Callum Tarren +35000
Mac Meissner +35000
Michael Gligic +35000
Roger Sloan +35000
Scott Gutschewski +35000
Wesley Bryan +35000
Cameron Percy +40000
Curtis Thompson +40000
Dylan Wu +40000
Hayden Buckley +40000
Kelly Kraft +40000
Kiradech Aphibarnrat +40000
Paul Barjon +40000
Richy Werenski +40000
Ryan Brehm +40000
Vaughn Taylor +40000
Bill Haas +50000
Chesson Hadley +50000
David Skinns +50000
Henrik Norlander +50000
James Hart du Preez +50000
Jared Wolfe +50000
Jason Dufner +50000
Kevin Tway +50000
Martin Trainer +50000
Max McGreevy +50000
Nick Watney +50000
Patrick Flavin +50000
Seth Reeves +50000
Seung-Yul Noh +50000
Sung Kang +50000
Austin Cook +75000
Brett Drewitt +75000
Jim Herman +75000
Joshua Creel +75000
Kyle Wilshire +75000
Cooper Dossey +100000
JJ Killeen +100000
John Murphy +100000
Jonas Blixt +100000
Justin Leonard +100000
Andrew Loupe +100000
Conrad Shindler +100000

Not all seconds are created equal. Matthew Fitzpatrick came in runner up for us on Sunday, but it never felt like he was in contention at any point during the week.

Instead, Max Homa came out on top for the second time this season and third time in 15 months. That win rate will draw some attention for the majors, and he’s still available at a decent price, coming in at 100-1 in a few spots for the PGA Championship and US Open.

Homa is probably worth a look at those numbers, given the quality of his previous wins. Victories at Quail Hollow and Riviera speak for themselves in terms of major talent, and Francesco Molinari used TPC Potomac as a catapult to his Open Championship a few months later.

Now we look at the final tuneup for the PGA Championship with the AT&T Byron Nelson this week.

The Course

TPC Craig Ranch is a 7,468-yard par-72 on the outskirts of the Dallas subway area. This is the second time the course has played host to the event. Last year, KH Lee put together the best week with the irons of his career, gaining over eight shots to beat Sam Burns by three strokes.

It was really easy by PGA TOUR standards with 25-under par coming in as the winning number. I’d imagine we’ll get at least to 20-under par again unless the weather plays a role.

Outside of that, we don’t have much to go off of besides two old Korn Ferry events. The winners won’t ring a bell to most either with Matt Bettencourt taking the 2008 title and Justin Bolli coming out on top in 2012.

Bettencourt and Bolli were both above-average iron players and had good short games, so that’s where I’ll be looking this week. Lee checked those two boxes last year, gaining over four strokes with the putter to go with that career-best approach week.

The Favorites

Scottie Scheffler opens at the top of the board coming in at around +1000. He’s got three wins in his last five starts and has the Texas ties going in his favor this week.

Justin Thomas is the only one who’s close this week in the odds, opening at +1200. He’s been solid for a while with six top 10s in his last 10 starts, but he hasn’t really been in contention much during those weeks.

After that, we have Sam Burns, Xander Schauffele, Jordan Spieth, Will Zalatoris, Dustin Johnson and Hideki Matsuyama all available in the + 2000s range. Burns was the aforementioned runner-up a year ago, while Spieth was ninth.

The Mid-Tier

I’ll open up this range with Davis Riley at +6500. I obviously bet him pretty much every week, but he’s worthy of a write up this time. He’s finished in the top five in three of his last five starts and has ties to the Dallas area, so it should be a comfortable event. The ball striking hasn’t always been great in those top finishes, but the putter is hot right now, and that’s what whoever wins this thing will need.

I’m also going with Jhonattan Vegas at +5500 on PointsBet. Vegas was a disaster off the tee last week, losing five strokes, but he still finished 15th thanks to the best approach week of his career. If the irons are anywhere close to that this week, he should contend on a course where he finished ninth last year.

Next, I’m going to Tommy Fleetwood at +6500 on FanDuel. I really wasn’t planning on playing Fleetwood this week, but I’ll bite into this field. Also, he’s at 40-1 or lower at most other books.

Prior to missing the cut at the Zurich Classic, Fleetwood didn’t have a stroke-play finish worse than 22nd in his previous five starts. The iron play has been a concern much of the past year both on the PGA TOUR and in Europe, but he’s gained ground there in three straight events now. The short game is probably as good as ever at the moment and has really carried him the past few months while his usual steady ball striking went awry.

The Longshots

In this range, I’m going to Patrick Rodgers at 200-1 on PointsBet. Rodgers was 10th two weeks ago in Mexico and 21st in New Orleans with Brandon Wu. Rodgers has gained strokes on approach in six of his last seven starts. He’s struggled with the putter this year, which has normally been a strength for him, but he did seem to get things figured out in Mexico to some extent where he gained five strokes on the greens.

We’ll also go to Rodgers’ Zurich Classic partner Brandon Wu, who’s also 200-1 on PointsBet. Wu was second in Mexico and third in Puerto Rico, so he’s worked his way into contention this season. After struggling much of the season, he’s made five straight cuts as well prior to missing the weekend at the Wells Fargo. So he’s been able to string together some consistency for a couple months now.

With this card, we’ll have room for a live add or two, which is how we hit Lee last year when he was +6600 and trailing Spieth by two after a strong first round.

The Byron Nelson Card

  • Jhonattan Vegas +5500 (.6 units)
  • Davis Riley +6500 (.5 units)
  • Tommy Fleetwood +6500 (.5 units)
  • Brandon Wu +20000 (.17 units)
  • Patrick Rodgers +20000 (.17 units)

Total Stake: 2.04 units

Leave a Comment

%d bloggers like this: